The Philippine government has warned of potential disruptions in air travel as jet fuel supply pressures mount, driven by ongoing global energy disruptions. In an interview on March 24, 2026, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said grounding planes remains a “distinct possibility” if the situation worsens. He noted that some countries have already refused to refuel Philippine aircraft, forcing airlines to carry enough fuel for round trips—a strategy that is more difficult for long-haul flights.

Supply Expected to Last Only Until April

Jet fuel inventories for Philippine carriers are currently projected to last only until the end of April 2026, raising urgency for both airlines and policymakers. Major carriers such as Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific have begun adjusting operations by loading extra fuel on outbound flights to compensate for limited access abroad. While effective in the short term, this approach increases costs and limits payload capacity. The government has since convened emergency meetings with airline executives to identify additional supply sources and prepare contingency plans.

Global Disruptions Driving Local Risk

The supply pressure is tied to broader geopolitical developments affecting global energy flows. The Philippines, which imports nearly all of its oil requirements, is particularly exposed to disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran and key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

While crude oil prices have surged, refined products like jet fuel are facing tighter supply conditions across Asia. Similar warnings have emerged in parts of Southeast Asia, indicating that the issue is not isolated to the Philippines.

Government Measures to Mitigate Impact

In response, the administration has launched a series of measures aimed at stabilizing supply and reducing demand. A crisis committee has been formed to monitor fuel and food security, while energy conservation policies—such as a temporary four-day work week in selected government offices—have been introduced to cut fuel and electricity consumption. Authorities are also exploring alternative fuel suppliers and providing targeted subsidies to sectors affected by rising energy costs. Officials maintain that overall oil supply remains adequate for now, with shipments still arriving, but acknowledge that jet fuel faces more immediate constraints.

Potential Impact on Travel and the Economy

If supply conditions do not improve, the aviation sector could face disruptions ranging from flight delays to cancellations or temporary grounding of aircraft after April. Passengers are already beginning to feel the effects through higher fuel surcharges and rising airfares. Beyond aviation, sustained fuel pressure could ripple through the broader economy; affecting transport, logistics, food prices, and inflation.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether supply constraints ease or escalate. Much will depend on global developments, access to alternative suppliers, and the effectiveness of domestic conservation measures.

For now, the warning from the country’s leadership underscores the seriousness of the situation: while a full-blown supply crisis has not yet materialized, the risk is no longer theoretical.

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